Today was a disappointing day for goldwatchers. As everyone was looking for gold to break above 700$/ounce, gold fell almost 10$ back around 680$. Now momentum seems gone to have a break out in the coming days.
Although the dollar is at historically weak levels, gold fell back during this trading session, first in Asia and Europe, and when the NY session began, it took a second hit down.
It began in rumours in Asia where stockmarkets fell a 3 percent. Chinese growth sparks rate fears, the yen rose versus the dollar, fears of unwinding carry trade, cot commercial traders dumped some positions.
At the time of this writing, gold is staying strong in the aftersession going up to 684. Gold didn’t fell below 680 what is very positive. Tomorrow will be a very important day for the short term. Dollar and hedge funds will be the ennemies. Now every man and his dog is bearish on the dollar but what would happen if the dollar takes the turn and rises up from these low levels? Hedge funds can beat up tommorows gold price if they don’t have the guts to stay through the weekend at the goldprices. This happened several times the last months and it happened most of the times on friday.

Anyway this is very short term chat, the goldchart is a stairway to heaven. Since the last high of May 2006 we saw four significant moves from gold. The goldprice attacked three times the levels of 685$. We had three big corrections but the lows were always higher. It strenghtens our believe that gold will not fall far from here. And if it would, it will be another great opportunity to catch up some bullion at bargain prices.

But if gold recovers tommorow it will take the 2006 record down. We should look at the chart of last years ultimate spike. Last year in mid April, on one particular day, gold was taken down from 640 to the price of 620 dollars. The next day it was able to beat the negative sentiment and the following weeks it spiked to 730. Will the same happen tommorow?

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